Euribor-linked variable · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Euribor-linked variable in Эстония rises from 4,20% today to 4,76% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Данные на 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Estonia is the most Euribor-exposed mortgage market in the euro area, with essentially all lending floating against 6-month Euribor. Bank margins are wide relative to the western euro area because the market is concentrated among a small number of Nordic-owned banks, which is why the Estonian spread over the ECB rate sits above the euro-area average even though the index tracks it exactly.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Эстония, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected Euribor-linked variable | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2,47% | 4,24% | +1,77pp |
| 2026-10 | 2,47% | 4,27% | +1,80pp |
| 2026-11 | 2,55% | 4,31% | +1,76pp |
| 2026-12 | 2,68% | 4,37% | +1,69pp |
| 2027-01 | 2,68% | 4,42% | +1,73pp |
| 2027-02 | 2,75% | 4,47% | +1,72pp |
| 2027-03 | 2,86% | 4,53% | +1,68pp |
| 2027-04 | 2,86% | 4,58% | +1,73pp |
| 2027-05 | 2,92% | 4,63% | +1,72pp |
| 2027-06 | 2,96% | 4,68% | +1,72pp |
| 2027-07 | 2,98% | 4,73% | +1,75pp |
| 2027-08 | 2,98% | 4,76% | +1,78pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Словакия | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4,30% | +2,05pp |
| Эстония | Euribor-linked variable | 4,20% | +1,95pp |
| Латвия | Euribor-linked variable | 4,00% | +1,75pp |
| Греция | Fixed-period mortgage | 3,90% | +1,65pp |
| Литва | Euribor-linked variable | 3,90% | +1,65pp |
| Нидерланды | 10-30-Year fixed | 3,85% | +1,60pp |
| Кипр | Fixed-period mortgage | 3,85% | +1,60pp |
| Италия | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3,75% | +1,50pp |
| Ирландия | 3-5-Year fixed | 3,75% | +1,50pp |
| Бельгия | 20-Year fixed | 3,70% | +1,45pp |
| Германия | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3,65% | +1,40pp |
| Австрия | 10-15-Year fixed | 3,60% | +1,35pp |
| Словения | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,60% | +1,35pp |
| Португалия | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3,55% | +1,30pp |
| Хорватия | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,55% | +1,30pp |
| Люксембург | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,55% | +1,30pp |
| Франция | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3,45% | +1,20pp |
| Испания | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3,35% | +1,10pp |
| Финляндия | Euribor-linked variable | 3,35% | +1,10pp |
| Мальта | Variable-rate mortgage | 3,30% | +1,05pp |