10-Year Festzinsbindung · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 10-Year Festzinsbindung in Германия rises from 3,65% today to 4,21% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Данные на 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
German mortgages are dominated by the Festzinsbindung: the rate is fixed for a defined period, most commonly 10 years but 5, 15 and 20 year fixes are all offered, after which the remaining balance is refinanced at whatever rate then applies. Loans are full-recourse and lenders fund heavily through Pfandbriefe (covered bonds), so the quoted rate tracks the covered-bond spread over swaps at least as closely as it tracks the ECB deposit rate. Under section 489 BGB a borrower gains an unconditional right to repay after ten years, which caps how much prepayment optionality lenders have to price in.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Германия, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected 10-Year Festzinsbindung | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2,47% | 3,69% | +1,22pp |
| 2026-10 | 2,47% | 3,72% | +1,25pp |
| 2026-11 | 2,55% | 3,76% | +1,21pp |
| 2026-12 | 2,68% | 3,82% | +1,14pp |
| 2027-01 | 2,68% | 3,87% | +1,18pp |
| 2027-02 | 2,75% | 3,92% | +1,17pp |
| 2027-03 | 2,86% | 3,98% | +1,13pp |
| 2027-04 | 2,86% | 4,03% | +1,18pp |
| 2027-05 | 2,92% | 4,08% | +1,17pp |
| 2027-06 | 2,96% | 4,13% | +1,17pp |
| 2027-07 | 2,98% | 4,18% | +1,20pp |
| 2027-08 | 2,98% | 4,21% | +1,23pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Словакия | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4,30% | +2,05pp |
| Эстония | Euribor-linked variable | 4,20% | +1,95pp |
| Латвия | Euribor-linked variable | 4,00% | +1,75pp |
| Греция | Fixed-period mortgage | 3,90% | +1,65pp |
| Литва | Euribor-linked variable | 3,90% | +1,65pp |
| Нидерланды | 10-30-Year fixed | 3,85% | +1,60pp |
| Кипр | Fixed-period mortgage | 3,85% | +1,60pp |
| Италия | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3,75% | +1,50pp |
| Ирландия | 3-5-Year fixed | 3,75% | +1,50pp |
| Бельгия | 20-Year fixed | 3,70% | +1,45pp |
| Германия | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3,65% | +1,40pp |
| Австрия | 10-15-Year fixed | 3,60% | +1,35pp |
| Словения | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,60% | +1,35pp |
| Португалия | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3,55% | +1,30pp |
| Хорватия | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,55% | +1,30pp |
| Люксембург | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,55% | +1,30pp |
| Франция | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3,45% | +1,20pp |
| Испания | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3,35% | +1,10pp |
| Финляндия | Euribor-linked variable | 3,35% | +1,10pp |
| Мальта | Variable-rate mortgage | 3,30% | +1,05pp |