Ипотечные ставки Нидерланды: прогноз на 12 месяцев по ценам ЕЦБ

Ипотечные ставки Нидерланды: прогноз на 12 месяцев по ценам ЕЦБ

10-30-Year fixed · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank

Estimated, not live: The ECB MFI interest-rate series for this member did not return a value on the last run. The figures below are periodically recalibrated estimates, not a live reading.

Will Нидерланды mortgage rates go up or down over the next 12 months?

Higher +56bp

Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 10-30-Year fixed in Нидерланды rises from 3,85% today to 4,41% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.

Today
3,85%
10-30-Year fixed
Implied in 12 months
4,41%
2027-08
Implied change
+56bp
Policy rate 2,25% → 2,98%

Данные на 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.

Mortgage Rate
3,85%
10-30-Year fixed
ECB Deposit Rate
2,25%
Shared by all 20 members
Spread vs ECB
+1,60pp
Lender margin over policy
10Y Govt Bond
2,75%
Harmonised long-term rate

How mortgages work in Нидерланды

Dutch mortgages are long-fixed, commonly 10, 20 or 30 years, and are supported by two structural features: mortgage interest relief (hypotheekrenteaftrek), which is being phased down, and the NHG guarantee scheme, which lowers the rate on loans below its ceiling. Rates are tiered by loan-to-value, so the headline national figure blends materially different prices.

The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Нидерланды, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.

Implied 12-month path for Нидерланды

The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.

MonthImplied ECB Deposit RateProjected 10-30-Year fixedSpread
2026-102,47%3,89%+1,42pp
2026-102,47%3,92%+1,45pp
2026-112,55%3,96%+1,41pp
2026-122,68%4,02%+1,34pp
2027-012,68%4,07%+1,38pp
2027-022,75%4,12%+1,37pp
2027-032,86%4,18%+1,33pp
2027-042,86%4,23%+1,38pp
2027-052,92%4,28%+1,37pp
2027-062,96%4,33%+1,37pp
2027-072,98%4,38%+1,40pp
2027-082,98%4,41%+1,43pp

Нидерланды compared with the rest of the euro area

CountryTypical ProductMortgage RateSpread vs ECB
СловакияFixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr)4,30%+2,05pp
ЭстонияEuribor-linked variable4,20%+1,95pp
ЛатвияEuribor-linked variable4,00%+1,75pp
ГрецияFixed-period mortgage3,90%+1,65pp
ЛитваEuribor-linked variable3,90%+1,65pp
Нидерланды10-30-Year fixed3,85%+1,60pp
КипрFixed-period mortgage3,85%+1,60pp
Италия20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso3,75%+1,50pp
Ирландия3-5-Year fixed3,75%+1,50pp
Бельгия20-Year fixed3,70%+1,45pp
Германия10-Year Festzinsbindung3,65%+1,40pp
Австрия10-15-Year fixed3,60%+1,35pp
СловенияFixed-rate mortgage3,60%+1,35pp
ПортугалияMixed / fixed-period mortgage3,55%+1,30pp
ХорватияFixed-rate mortgage3,55%+1,30pp
ЛюксембургFixed-rate mortgage3,55%+1,30pp
Франция20-25-Year taux fixe3,45%+1,20pp
Испания15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo3,35%+1,10pp
ФинляндияEuribor-linked variable3,35%+1,10pp
МальтаVariable-rate mortgage3,30%+1,05pp

Frequently Asked Questions

On current market pricing, no. Futures pricing implies the typical 10-30-Year fixed in Нидерланды rises from 3,85% today to 4,41% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. That path assumes the European Central Bank policy rate follows the futures curve and the mortgage spread returns to its long-run average of 1,30 percentage points. It is what the market implies, not a forecast.

The typical mortgage in Нидерланды is the 10-30-Year fixed, currently 3,85% as of 2026-09-05. The European Central Bank policy rate is 2,25%, so borrowers pay a spread of 1,60 percentage points over the policy rate, covering the lender's funding cost, credit risk and margin.

About 85% of a European Central Bank policy rate change reaches the typical mortgage rate in Нидерланды, and it takes roughly 4 months to get there. The rest is absorbed by the lender's spread, which moves with bond yields, funding conditions and competition rather than with the policy rate itself.

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