10-30-Year fixed · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 10-30-Year fixed in Нидерланды rises from 3,85% today to 4,59% by 2027-09, about 74 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Данные на 2026-10-07. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Dutch mortgages are long-fixed, commonly 10, 20 or 30 years, and are supported by two structural features: mortgage interest relief (hypotheekrenteaftrek), which is being phased down, and the NHG guarantee scheme, which lowers the rate on loans below its ceiling. Rates are tiered by loan-to-value, so the headline national figure blends materially different prices.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Нидерланды, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected 10-30-Year fixed | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2,50% | 3,90% | +1,40pp |
| 2026-11 | 2,53% | 3,94% | +1,41pp |
| 2026-12 | 2,73% | 4,01% | +1,28pp |
| 2027-01 | 2,73% | 4,07% | +1,34pp |
| 2027-02 | 2,80% | 4,13% | +1,33pp |
| 2027-03 | 2,97% | 4,22% | +1,25pp |
| 2027-04 | 2,97% | 4,28% | +1,32pp |
| 2027-05 | 3,06% | 4,35% | +1,29pp |
| 2027-06 | 3,13% | 4,43% | +1,30pp |
| 2027-07 | 3,18% | 4,49% | +1,31pp |
| 2027-08 | 3,18% | 4,54% | +1,37pp |
| 2027-09 | 3,20% | 4,59% | +1,39pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Словакия | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4,30% | +1,80pp |
| Эстония | Euribor-linked variable | 4,20% | +1,70pp |
| Латвия | Euribor-linked variable | 4,00% | +1,50pp |
| Греция | Fixed-period mortgage | 3,90% | +1,40pp |
| Литва | Euribor-linked variable | 3,90% | +1,40pp |
| Нидерланды | 10-30-Year fixed | 3,85% | +1,35pp |
| Кипр | Fixed-period mortgage | 3,85% | +1,35pp |
| Италия | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3,75% | +1,25pp |
| Ирландия | 3-5-Year fixed | 3,75% | +1,25pp |
| Бельгия | 20-Year fixed | 3,70% | +1,20pp |
| Германия | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3,65% | +1,15pp |
| Австрия | 10-15-Year fixed | 3,60% | +1,10pp |
| Словения | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,60% | +1,10pp |
| Португалия | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3,55% | +1,05pp |
| Хорватия | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,55% | +1,05pp |
| Люксембург | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3,55% | +1,05pp |
| Франция | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3,45% | +0,95pp |
| Испания | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3,35% | +0,85pp |
| Финляндия | Euribor-linked variable | 3,35% | +0,85pp |
| Мальта | Variable-rate mortgage | 3,30% | +0,80pp |