Ипотечные ставки Словакия: прогноз на 12 месяцев по ценам ЕЦБ

Ипотечные ставки Словакия: прогноз на 12 месяцев по ценам ЕЦБ

Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank

Estimated, not live: The ECB MFI interest-rate series for this member did not return a value on the last run. The figures below are periodically recalibrated estimates, not a live reading.

Will Словакия mortgage rates go up or down over the next 12 months?

Higher +75bp

Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) in Словакия rises from 4,30% today to 5,05% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.

Today
4,30%
Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr)
Implied in 12 months
5,05%
2027-09
Implied change
+75bp
Policy rate 2,50% → 3,21%

Данные на 2026-10-20. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.

Mortgage Rate
4,30%
Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr)
ECB Deposit Rate
2,50%
Shared by all 20 members
Spread vs ECB
+1,80pp
Lender margin over policy
10Y Govt Bond
3,35%
Harmonised long-term rate

How mortgages work in Словакия

Slovak mortgages are fixed for a defined period, most often three to five years, after which they reset. That structure creates recurring repricing waves as cohorts of loans roll off their fix, and it makes Slovak households more exposed to where the ECB rate sits at the moment of reset than to where it sits today.

The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Словакия, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.

Implied 12-month path for Словакия

The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.

MonthImplied ECB Deposit RateProjected Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr)Spread
2026-102,50%4,35%+1,84pp
2026-112,51%4,38%+1,88pp
2026-122,73%4,46%+1,73pp
2027-012,73%4,52%+1,79pp
2027-022,81%4,58%+1,77pp
2027-032,99%4,67%+1,68pp
2027-042,99%4,74%+1,75pp
2027-053,06%4,81%+1,75pp
2027-063,14%4,88%+1,75pp
2027-073,19%4,95%+1,76pp
2027-083,19%5,00%+1,81pp
2027-093,21%5,05%+1,84pp

Словакия compared with the rest of the euro area

CountryTypical ProductMortgage RateSpread vs ECB
СловакияFixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr)4,30%+1,80pp
ЭстонияEuribor-linked variable4,20%+1,70pp
ЛатвияEuribor-linked variable4,00%+1,50pp
ГрецияFixed-period mortgage3,90%+1,40pp
ЛитваEuribor-linked variable3,90%+1,40pp
Нидерланды10-30-Year fixed3,85%+1,35pp
КипрFixed-period mortgage3,85%+1,35pp
Италия20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso3,75%+1,25pp
Ирландия3-5-Year fixed3,75%+1,25pp
Бельгия20-Year fixed3,70%+1,20pp
Германия10-Year Festzinsbindung3,65%+1,15pp
Австрия10-15-Year fixed3,60%+1,10pp
СловенияFixed-rate mortgage3,60%+1,10pp
ПортугалияMixed / fixed-period mortgage3,55%+1,05pp
ХорватияFixed-rate mortgage3,55%+1,05pp
ЛюксембургFixed-rate mortgage3,55%+1,05pp
Франция20-25-Year taux fixe3,45%+0,95pp
Испания15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo3,35%+0,85pp
ФинляндияEuribor-linked variable3,35%+0,85pp
МальтаVariable-rate mortgage3,30%+0,80pp

Frequently Asked Questions

On current market pricing, no. Futures pricing implies the typical Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) in Словакия rises from 4,30% today to 5,05% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. That path assumes the European Central Bank policy rate follows the futures curve and the mortgage spread returns to its long-run average of 1,30 percentage points. It is what the market implies, not a forecast.

The typical mortgage in Словакия is the Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr), currently 4,30% as of 2026-10-20. The European Central Bank policy rate is 2,50%, so borrowers pay a spread of 1,80 percentage points over the policy rate, covering the lender's funding cost, credit risk and margin.

About 85% of a European Central Bank policy rate change reaches the typical mortgage rate in Словакия, and it takes roughly 4 months to get there. The rest is absorbed by the lender's spread, which moves with bond yields, funding conditions and competition rather than with the policy rate itself.

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